Level 30 damage, calibrated

This is the third version of the level 30 damage simulation. The first used three spells in their Season of Discovery versions; the second fixed them. This one is calibrated: its mechanics were checked against 61 real Forever combat logs from Wanted's players and against a character on the live client, every spec's rotation was reviewed, and the mechanics were compared with the two public Forever simulators.

Untested in game. The numbers are still simulated ceilings, not expectations. The target fights back at the median 7.2 DPS from the logs but never heals.

What changed

• Damage over time ticks can crit in Forever.
• Ranged attacks can't be dodged or blocked.
• Frost Nova breaks on damage by Classic's chance rule, so a frozen target doesn't always stand through four Ice Lances. This one is untested in game.
• Hunter pets: focus regeneration and the rate of Claw are measured, not assumed.
• Mana regeneration is measured per class, so casters run out of mana at the rate measured from the logs.
• Holy Shock's spell power coefficient is measured, from a small sample.
• Melee specs are simulated in contact with the target for the whole fight; every other spec keeps the mixed fight, 6 seconds of contact in every 20.

Against the real class order the agreement improved: the rank correlation with the server's tally went from 0.70 to 0.77. The ceilings themselves moved further above real damage, which is expected for ceilings. The misses that remain: rogues and warriors come out lower than real, warlocks higher.

Still open: how much rage a two-handed swing gives, and how much crit a point of Agility is worth at level 30.

The top five

Sustained DPS over 60 seconds, averaged over the armoured targets:

1. Hunter Marksmanship: 158.2 DPS
2. Hunter Beast Mastery: 152.2 DPS
3. Hunter Survival: 149.3 DPS
4. Warlock Affliction: 139.4 DPS
5. Warlock Destruction: 133.9 DPS

The opener

DPS over the first 10 seconds, every cooldown used, with each spec's best opening sequence:

1. Paladin Holy: 191.7 DPS
2. Hunter Marksmanship: 182.0 DPS
3. Hunter Beast Mastery: 181.8 DPS
4. Hunter Survival: 173.3 DPS
5. Shaman Enhancement: 154.6 DPS

The Holy paladin's opener rests on Holy Shock's spell power coefficient, measured from a small sample: 8 paladins and 69 hits.

Why hunters lead

Hunters gain the most from the calibration. The gains below are measured, except Careful Aim, which is the talent's value in the client. Ranged attacks can't be dodged or blocked: the old model avoided about 9% of Auto Shots, the logs show about 4%. Careful Aim gives 100% of Intellect as ranged attack power in Forever, against 45% in The Burning Crusade, so Intellect is a damage stat for Marksmanship. Arcane Shot and Serpent Sting scale with ranged attack power on Forever's server; the client lists no coefficient, so it was measured from the logs and confirmed shot by shot on a live character. Serpent Sting's ticks crit. The pet's focus regenerates at 10.75 a second, twice the old assumption, and a cat that uses Claw does so 0.63 times per swing. Auto Shot keeps firing during Aimed Shot.

This agrees with the real logs: hunters are also first in the real class order, and have the best kills per death on the site's own records.

Before you reroll

Use the numbers to compare specs, not to predict a fight. Every spec's talents, rotation, gear and damage by ability are on the level 30 PvP damage page; start with Hunter Marksmanship. The earlier story has the numbers before calibration.